Today's Picks
Time Matchup Side Line Predicted Total Model Prediction % Market Prediction % % Edge % Bankroll Bet ($)
6:38 PM PT Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8.5 7.7 57% 52% 5.2% 1.64% $412
4:45 PM PT Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 8.5 58% 48% 9.6% 2.77% $696
4:40 PM PT Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins UNDER 7.5 6.9 55% 48% 7.3% 2.10% $527
3:40 PM PT Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8.5 7.7 57% 52% 5.2% 1.63% $409
Today's Game Slate
First Pitch Matchup Status
3:40 PM PT Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays Bet
3:45 PM PT Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals No Bet
4:10 PM PT Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds No Bet
4:40 PM PT Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Bet
4:40 PM PT San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers No Bet
4:45 PM PT Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals Bet
6:38 PM PT Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels Bet
6:40 PM PT New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners No Bet
6:40 PM PT Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks No Bet
Bankroll
Current
$25,131
+15,131 (+151.3%)
started $10,000
2026 Season — Kalshi Totals
Record
147-123
0 pushes
Win Rate
54.4%
270 settled
ROI
+12.4%
on dollars risked
Profit
+15131.31
paper-trade dollars
Avg Edge
10.5%
model vs market
Bets Placed
271
270 settled
Monthly Breakdown
Month Bets Record Win Rate ROI P&L ($)
2026-04 166 87-79-0 52.4% +5.6% +4270.73
2026-05 104 60-44-0 57.7% +23.9% +10860.57
Recent Results
Date Matchup Side Line Predicted Total Edge % Bankroll Bet $ Score Result P&L $
2026-05-24 Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox OVER 7.5 8.8 15.1% 4.04% $912 6-5 win +1160.73
2026-05-24 Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 6.5 5.9 11.1% 2.96% $668 8-5 loss -668.00
2026-05-24 Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 9.3 9.8% 2.78% $628 6-8 win +708.17
2026-05-24 Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels OVER 7.5 8.6 5.2% 1.66% $374 1-2 loss -374.00
2026-05-24 New York Mets @ Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 8.3 5.2% 1.64% $370 0-4 loss -370.00
2026-05-24 Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees UNDER 6.5 5.1 16.5% 4.59% $1034 0-2 win +1213.83
2026-05-24 Athletics @ San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 6.7 5.2% 1.63% $367 5-2 win +338.77
2026-05-24 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 6.7 8.3% 2.43% $548 4-1 win +570.37
2026-05-23 St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds UNDER 9.5 8.7 10.1% 2.87% $659 8-1 win +743.13
2026-05-23 St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds UNDER 9.5 8.7 11.2% 3.11% $715 6-7 loss -715.00
2026-05-23 Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels OVER 7.5 8.8 11.4% 3.29% $756 2-5 loss -756.00
2026-05-23 Athletics @ San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 6.3 13.7% 3.87% $890 0-2 win +1003.62
2026-05-23 Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 8.5 7.7 11.1% 3.08% $708 3-10 loss -708.00
2026-05-22 Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 6.5 5.7 8.2% 2.41% $520 1-0 win +541.22
2026-05-22 Athletics @ San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 6.5 11.1% 3.19% $688 3-7 loss -688.00
2026-05-22 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 9.2 9.2% 2.60% $561 1-5 loss -561.00
2026-05-22 Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox OVER 7.5 8.4 11.0% 3.13% $674 8-6 win +760.04
2026-05-22 Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 6.5 5.0 19.1% 5.00% $1078 4-2 win +1372.00
2026-05-21 Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers UNDER 7.5 6.6 5.0% 1.61% $320 3-1 win +283.77
2026-05-21 Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 8.3 6.2% 1.90% $377 9-3 win +362.22
Model Parameters
Kelly Fraction
15%
of full Kelly
Max Bet
5%
of bankroll per game
Min Kalshi Edge
5.0%
model vs market
Min Confidence
55%
P(over) or P(under)
Min Edge (Runs)
0.5
model vs posted line
Min Bet
$1
floor per trade