Today's Picks
No totals bets flagged for 2026-08-01.
Today's Game Slate
First Pitch Matchup Status
12:07 PM PT St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays Upcoming
1:10 PM PT Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Upcoming
1:10 PM PT Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners Upcoming
1:10 PM PT Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Upcoming
3:40 PM PT Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds Upcoming
4:05 PM PT Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles Upcoming
4:10 PM PT Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Upcoming
4:15 PM PT Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians Upcoming
4:15 PM PT New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs Upcoming
4:15 PM PT Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves Upcoming
5:10 PM PT Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies Upcoming
5:40 PM PT San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres Upcoming
6:10 PM PT Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers Upcoming
6:38 PM PT Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels Upcoming
6:40 PM PT Detroit Tigers @ Athletics Upcoming
Bankroll
Current
$22,161
+12,161 (+121.6%)
started $10,000
2026 Season — Kalshi Totals
Record
230-201
0 pushes, 0 voids
Win Rate
53.4%
431 settled
ROI
+5.2%
on dollars risked
Profit
+12160.80
paper-trade dollars
Avg Edge
10.2%
model vs market
Bets Placed
431
431 settled
Monthly Breakdown
Month Bets Record Win Rate ROI P&L ($)
2026-04 166 87-79-0 52.4% +5.6% +4270.73
2026-05 141 82-59-0 58.2% +18.1% +12629.78
2026-06 87 44-43-0 50.6% +1.0% +592.55
2026-07 37 17-20-0 45.9% -20.0% -5332.26
Recent Results
Date Matchup Side Line Predicted Total Edge % Bankroll Bet $ Score Result P&L $
2026-07-31 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians UNDER 8.5 7.5 9.8% 2.94% $632 4-1 win +638.21
2026-07-22 Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox OVER 8.5 9.7 6.1% 2.03% $411 3-6 win +336.27
2026-07-22 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians UNDER 8.5 7.0 12.2% 3.82% $772 10-6 loss -772.00
2026-07-22 Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 7.6 5.2% 1.67% $338 2-5 win +299.74
2026-07-22 Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners UNDER 8.5 7.5 9.6% 2.88% $583 5-3 win +583.00
2026-07-22 Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 7.4 13.3% 3.75% $759 4-2 win +855.89
2026-07-21 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians UNDER 7.5 5.5 20.8% 5.00% $931 2-5 win +1049.85
2026-07-21 Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 6.5 9.7% 2.90% $540 4-2 win +540.00
2026-07-20 New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 5.6 19.3% 5.00% $1135 3-8 loss -1135.00
2026-07-20 Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 6.5 10.7% 3.16% $716 0-8 loss -716.00
2026-07-20 Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers UNDER 7.5 5.8 17.8% 5.00% $1135 10-3 loss -1135.00
2026-07-20 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians UNDER 7.5 5.8 15.8% 4.74% $1075 4-13 loss -1075.00
2026-07-19 Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 6.4 14.2% 3.95% $889 1-3 win +1043.61
2026-07-19 Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 7.4 14.0% 3.90% $879 8-2 loss -879.00
2026-07-18 Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8.5 7.5 6.0% 1.92% $440 6-8 loss -440.00
2026-07-17 Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 9.9 13.6% 3.95% $922 2-1 loss -922.00
2026-07-17 Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8.5 7.4 7.9% 2.44% $571 1-2 win +527.08
2026-07-12 Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 11.1 6.0% 1.78% $413 2-8 win +413.00
2026-07-12 Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers UNDER 7.5 5.6 12.4% 4.09% $948 5-0 win +775.64
2026-07-12 Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 7.4 16.4% 4.33% $1004 5-6 loss -1004.00
Model Parameters
Kelly Fraction
15%
of full Kelly
Max Bet
5%
of bankroll per game
Min Kalshi Edge
5.0%
model vs market
Min Confidence
55%
P(over) or P(under)
Min Edge (Runs)
0.5
model vs posted line
Min Bet
$1
floor per trade
How to use this page
Provenance verifies what produced each paper trade. Edge Quality compares settled performance across useful slices. Expand a breakdown as needed; tables scroll horizontally on smaller screens.
Analysis Diagnostics
Legacy/backfill rows
165 official paper bet(s) come from the legacy/backfill tracker. They count in bankroll and performance totals, but older exports did not capture every model provenance field.
Historical live-row gaps
151 live-ledger bet(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete provenance capture and are missing one or more core fields: Model Version (151), Feature Version (151), Baseball Model Total (151), Market-Adjusted Total (151), Raw Model Edge (151), Adjusted Model Edge (151). All 115 subsequent live-ledger bet(s) since 2026-06-04 contain every core field.
Prediction Provenance
Paper bets only. Missing values are shown explicitly for legacy rows.
Ledger Source 3 breakdowns
Value Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win/Coverage ROI P&L
closing_line_backfill 129 129 71-58-0 12.3% 55.0% +9.1% +5663
live_pregame 266 266 138-128-0 9.4% 51.9% +3.4% +4985
outage_backfill_2026_05_25_2026_05_31 36 36 21-15-0 9.2% 58.3% +6.2% +1513
Decision Rule 5 breakdowns
Value Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win/Coverage ROI P&L
Not captured (legacy/backfill) 129 129 71-58-0 12.3% 55.0% +9.1% +5663
Missing on live row 7 7 4-3-0 8.3% 57.1% +16.9% +442
pregame_poller_v1 71 71 36-35-0 8.8% 50.7% +4.3% +1109
close_window_v1 188 188 98-90-0 9.7% 52.1% +2.9% +3435
closing_line_outage_backfill_v1 36 36 21-15-0 9.2% 58.3% +6.2% +1513
Model Version 3 breakdowns
Value Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win/Coverage ROI P&L
Not captured (legacy/backfill) 165 165 92-73-0 11.6% 55.8% +8.3% +7176
Missing on live row 151 151 79-72-0 8.7% 52.3% +11.7% +7611
analysis-phase5-20260602 115 115 59-56-0 10.2% 51.3% -3.2% -2626
Feature Version 3 breakdowns
Value Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win/Coverage ROI P&L
Not captured (legacy/backfill) 165 165 92-73-0 11.6% 55.8% +8.3% +7176
Missing on live row 151 151 79-72-0 8.7% 52.3% +11.7% +7611
strict_prior_day_v1 115 115 59-56-0 10.2% 51.3% -3.2% -2626
Feature Policy 3 breakdowns
Value Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win/Coverage ROI P&L
Not captured (legacy/backfill) 165 165 92-73-0 11.6% 55.8% +8.3% +7176
Missing on live row 151 151 79-72-0 8.7% 52.3% +11.7% +7611
strict_prior_day_v1 115 115 59-56-0 10.2% 51.3% -3.2% -2626
Market Adjustment 2 breakdowns
Value Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win/Coverage ROI P&L
Not captured (legacy/backfill) 165 165 92-73-0 11.6% 55.8% +8.3% +7176
edge_model 266 266 138-128-0 9.4% 51.9% +3.4% +4985
Field Coverage 7 breakdowns
Field Live Rows Present Missing Live Legacy Exempt Coverage Status
Baseball Model Total
151 historical live-ledger row(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete capture. Later rows contain this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 115 151 165 115/266 (43.2%) historical gap
Market-Adjusted Total
151 historical live-ledger row(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete capture. Later rows contain this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 115 151 165 115/266 (43.2%) historical gap
Raw Model Edge
151 historical live-ledger row(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete capture. Later rows contain this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 115 151 165 115/266 (43.2%) historical gap
Adjusted Model Edge
151 historical live-ledger row(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete capture. Later rows contain this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 115 151 165 115/266 (43.2%) historical gap
Model Version
151 historical live-ledger row(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete capture. Later rows contain this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 115 151 165 115/266 (43.2%) historical gap
Feature Version
151 historical live-ledger row(s) from 2026-04-23 through 2026-06-03 predate complete capture. Later rows contain this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 115 151 165 115/266 (43.2%) historical gap
Market Adjustment
All live-ledger rows have this field. 165 legacy/backfill row(s) are exempt.
 266 266 0 165 266/266 (100.0%) ok
Edge Quality
Paper bets only. ROI, P&L, and records use settled trades.
Edge Bucket 4 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
5-7% 101 101 56-45-0 5.9% 55.4% +2.3pp +6.9% +2392
7-10% 135 135 74-61-0 8.4% 54.8% +3.6pp +10.9% +7018
10-15% 137 137 70-67-0 12.0% 51.1% +9.0pp +1.4% +1244
15%+ 58 58 30-28-0 18.0% 51.7% +14.0pp +3.4% +1506
Confidence 4 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
55-57.5% 161 161 81-80-0 8.2% 50.3% +6.3pp +4.1% +2770
57.5-60% 93 93 50-43-0 8.8% 53.8% +5.1pp +3.6% +1734
60-65% 127 127 72-55-0 11.2% 56.7% +4.6pp +7.9% +6435
65%+ 50 50 27-23-0 17.3% 54.0% +13.6pp +3.4% +1221
Side 2 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
OVER 191 191 107-84-0 11.0% 56.0% +4.3pp +10.7% +10382
UNDER 240 240 123-117-0 9.7% 51.2% +8.0pp +1.3% +1779
Month 4 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
2026-04 166 166 87-79-0 11.4% 52.4% — +5.6% +4271
2026-05 141 141 82-59-0 9.0% 58.2% — +18.1% +12630
2026-06 87 87 44-43-0 9.8% 50.6% — +1.0% +593
2026-07 37 37 17-20-0 10.8% 45.9% — -20.0% -5332
Line Total 3 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
<=7.5 213 213 120-93-0 11.3% 56.3% +4.4pp +10.0% +12154
8-8.5 112 112 53-59-0 9.4% 47.3% +11.4pp -4.3% -2501
9+ 106 106 57-49-0 9.0% 53.8% +5.2pp +4.8% +2507
Market Price 4 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
<45c 24 24 13-11-0 15.7% 54.2% +5.9pp
small n
 +19.6% +3469
45-49c 189 189 95-94-0 11.5% 50.3% +8.7pp +2.6% +2906
50-54c 205 205 112-93-0 8.6% 54.6% +5.6pp +2.8% +2695
55c+ 13 13 10-3-0 8.3% 76.9% -13.5pp
small n
 +44.6% +3091
Decision Timing 5 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
T-0 to T-3 13 13 6-7-0 9.0% 46.2% +13.1pp
small n
 -16.6% -1365
T-3 to T-7 176 176 93-83-0 9.9% 52.8% +6.4pp +1.8% +2105
T-7 to T-20 64 64 34-30-0 8.4% 53.1% +4.7pp +16.4% +4485
T-20+ 42 42 22-20-0 9.0% 52.4% +5.3pp +5.3% +831
Unknown 136 136 75-61-0 12.1% 55.1% +7.0pp +9.4% +6105
Raw Edge 5 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
<0.5 runs 41 41 23-18-0 10.8% 56.1% +5.0pp +6.9% +2060
0.5-1.0 runs 39 39 15-24-0 10.5% 38.5% +21.1pp -29.0% -8008
1.0-1.5 runs 19 19 11-8-0 9.4% 57.9% +1.9pp
small n
 +7.9% +1002
1.5+ runs 16 16 10-6-0 9.3% 62.5% -2.8pp
small n
 +21.4% +2320
Unknown 316 316 171-145-0 10.2% 54.1% +5.5pp +9.7% +14786
Adjusted Edge 5 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
<0.5 runs 2 2 2-0-0 5.7% 100.0% -40.3pp
small n
 +84.9% +636
0.5-1.0 runs 13 13 6-7-0 8.3% 46.2% +10.7pp
small n
 -3.9% -294
1.0-1.5 runs 83 83 44-39-0 10.0% 53.0% +7.2pp +2.4% +1403
1.5+ runs 17 17 7-10-0 13.3% 41.2% +21.6pp
small n
 -29.4% -4370
Unknown 316 316 171-145-0 10.2% 54.1% +5.5pp +9.7% +14786
Market Adjustment 2 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
Unknown 165 165 92-73-0 11.6% 55.8% +5.8pp +8.3% +7176
edge_model 266 266 138-128-0 9.4% 51.9% +6.8pp +3.4% +4985
Weather 3 breakdowns
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
No weather data 369 369 196-173-0 10.2% 53.1% +6.6pp +5.4% +10280
open_meteo_forecast 51 51 29-22-0 10.3% 56.9% +3.4pp +7.3% +2628
open_meteo_archive_observed 11 11 5-6-0 10.5% 45.5% +14.4pp
small n
 -9.5% -748
Lineups 1 breakdown
Bucket Bets Settled Record Avg Edge Win Rate Cal Gap ROI P&L
No lineup data 431 431 230-201-0 10.2% 53.4% +6.4pp +5.2% +12161